Focus of Big Ten tourney: NCAA bids

CHICAGO - Without question, the Big Ten has seen better seasons, better players, better teams top to bottom.

But this weekend at Chicago's United Center might produce the most compelling Big Ten Tournament in the event's 10-year existence. All those middling teams slogging it out for a limited number of NCAA Tournament bids? They're here to decide things on the court.

"The coaches of these other (five) teams bunched up, they're telling their teams the same thing I'm telling my team: 'Hey let's not talk our way into the tournament, let's play our way into the tournament,' " said Purdue's Matt Painter, whose team is directly on the proverbial NCAA "bubble."

"There's more at stake in this tournament than normal," said Jerry Palm, an NCAA bracket expert who publishes the Web site collegerpi.com. "I think that's true of a lot of conference tournaments out there, because there's just so little separation this year between so many teams.

"This weekend is big for a lot of people."

It culminates Sunday with the NCAA selection show to announce the field of 65. Palm and his colleagues consider MSU a solid bet at this point to be included.

But if the Spartans (21-10 overall, 8-8 Big Ten) begin the Big Ten tournament today with a loss to Northwestern (13-17, 2-14) "they could be in trouble," Palm said. "That would be a real ugly loss at this time of year."

In other words, the Spartans would be best-served to take the weekend off and look for their assignment Sunday night. No such luck.

"Sometimes you can help yourself in it," MSU coach Tom Izzo said of the league tourney, "and sometimes you can hurt yourself in it."

'Middle six'

MSU is on the upper crust of the league's "middle six" teams, along with Indiana.

No. 1 Ohio State and No. 3 Wisconsin are the "big two" this season, both playing for NCAA No. 1 seeds this weekend.

Northwestern, Penn State and Minnesota are the "bottom three," playing to ruin someone else's postseason.

Just below MSU and Indiana are four teams who must win their way into NCAA invitations: Purdue, Illinois, Michigan and Iowa.

"We can make our mark," said Illinois coach Bruce Weber, whose team is neck-and-neck with Purdue on the NCAA borderline. "See if we can get an at-large bid. ... I think we can get six (teams in the NCAA tourney), maybe even seven. A lot depends on what happens with other tournaments and what happens with our tournament.

"The next group of teams (after OSU and Wisconsin) have all really improved and I think they're capable of beating some people. I really believe the guys that get in could surprise some people."

Desperation time

Getting in will be the trick. And it's trickier for Michigan and Iowa. The Wolverines blew a chance to beat OSU at home Saturday, making a deep run essential now for the Wolverines. If they beat Minnesota today, they'll get another crack at the Buckeyes on Friday.

Iowa might have to win four games in four days to earn an automatic bid - as Steve Alford's Hawkeyes did in 2001 to force their way into the big event.

Today is basically an elimination game between Iowa and Purdue. If Purdue advances and U-M starts with two wins, those teams would meet Saturday in another "play-in" game.

Or so it would seem. With so many marginal teams in so many leagues taking aim at each other this weekend, Sunday night will be disappointing for more programs than usual.

"The thing the teams on the bubble have to understand is, they don't really control their own destiny," Palm said. "Whatever you do, you might think it's good enough, but maybe it isn't. Someone else out there might be doing something better."

The only safe bet is to keep winning. That combination of desperation and uncertainty could make for quite a weekend at the United Center.

"Even without those circumstances I think it would be competitive," IU coach Kelvin Sampson said. "These programs have so much pride and there's great tradition of winning. But the opportunity of playing in the (NCAA) tournament is special ... I think there's gonna be extra motivation and excitement around every game."

Contact Joe Rexrode at jrexrode@lsj.com.